Goldknopf's Three Seats and Bennett's Dilemma May Decide Israel's Government

Three seats held by Agudat Yisrael may determine the future of the Israeli government. Political assessments circulating within the establishment suggest that Yitzhak Goldknopf's small Haredi faction could back an opposition-led cabinet. This support would likely be contingent on specific budgetary agreements. However, such a deal might not eliminate the need for votes from Arab parties to pass legislation.

These calculations are being made with less than a day remaining before voting begins. Analysts are reviewing several potential outcomes for the post-election period. One scenario involves a government relying on Arab party support. Another possibility is a return to the polls for a second election. The idea of cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and the change bloc is not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring these options, including a potential alliance with Gadi Eisenkot.

Internal friction within United Torah Judaism has fueled this uncertainty. Tensions exist between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah over the Haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition's behavior, while Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in the current government. Rabbi Dov Lando also sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Netanyahu-led bloc, adding to the ambiguity of these ties.

Goldknopf faces a significant challenge in shifting his faction's alignment. His voter base is largely identified with the Right. Political assessments indicate that any sign of supporting a change bloc government could push some supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This risk complicates the strategic calculus for the three MKs.

Attention is also turning to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett may decide the shape of the next government. One possibility is that he could join a Netanyahu-led administration. This is considered a remote scenario because Bennett would need to shift his base of support. The makeup of his current party would also complicate such a move, though some view him as the only leader in the change bloc able to take this step due to his Right-wing background.

Former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge between blocs. He previously joined a Netanyahu-led government. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is far from making a similar move due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister. For now, these remain political scenarios rather than agreed-upon deals.